Message from MONSE - What the Data on GVRS Says
Wednesday, June 7, 2023
Message from MONSE - What the Data on GVRS Says
At Monday night’s budget hearing, MONSE unintentionally generated some confusion while attempting to demonstrate the strong impact of the Group Violence Reduction Strategy (GVRS) in the 17 months since implementation in the Western District.
Because we value transparency, we’d like to acknowledge the error and clear up any remaining uncertainty about the data presented at the hearing. Our calculation that resulted in the presented “25.2 percent reduction” was calculated by comparing two 17-month periods. The first data set examined January 2021 to May 2022, while the second examined January 2022 to May 2023 – these two data sets erroneously overlapped a 5 month period between January 2022 to May 2022.
This error does not change the reality that GVRS has generated significant positive impact on public safety outcomes in the Western District. In fact, in examining data from the 17 months since implementation in the Western (January 1, 2022 to May 31, 2023) relative to a comparable 17-month period (January 1, 2020 to May 31, 2021) the results remain compelling — homicides and nonfatal shootings are down a combined 24.5 percent.
Additionally, if we look at the same 17-month period after implementation and compare it to the 17 months prior to the launch of GVRS in the Western (July 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021), the results are even more compelling – homicides and nonfatal shootings are down a combined 36 percent.
We agree that the full picture is important. For context, MONSE implemented GVRS in partnership with BPD and SAO in the Western District in January 2022. By the end of 2022, we saw a significant initial drop of a 39 percent year-over-year decrease in homicides and a 31 percent decrease in non-fatal shootings.
Western District’s year-end homicide totals:
This year, as of June 3, there have been 17 homicides in the Western District, compared with 15 homicides over the same period last year – a 13.3 percent increase (Public Crime Dashboard (arcgis.com)). Because GVRS has been implemented in the Western District for more than a year, all year-over-year comparisons are now set against the backdrop of the initial progress made. This year’s rate remains down compared to historical homicide numbers in the Western. As of June 3rd, homicides in the Western are down 22.7 percent when compared to pre-GVRS numbers from January 1, 2021, through June 3, 2021 .
Similar progress can be seen in the Southwestern District. Since the implementation of GVRS in the Southwestern in January 2023, homicides are down 31.5 percent year-to-date – through June 3 – compared to the same time period last year.
Southwestern District year-over-year homicide totals:
- 1/1/2023-6/3/2023 (the first 5 months after implementation) - 13
- 1/1/2022-6/3/2022 (the first 5 months of previous year) - 19
Our goal through GVRS is to produce sustainable decreases in both homicides and nonfatal shootings in the districts where the strategy is active. After a 33.5 percent year-over-year aggregate reduction in homicides and nonfatal shootings in 2022, the Western is currently experiencing a 2 percent aggregate reduction in homicides and nonfatal shootings [45] in comparison to this time in 2022 [46].
Ultimately, our priority is saving lives. Through our partners at YAP and ROCA we’ve connected 91 GVRS participants most at-risk of being involved in group violence to life-changing services. This includes 77 participants in the Western – including 13 just this calendar year – and now 14 participants in the Southwestern,
As part of our commitment to transparency and accountability, and so Baltimore residents can easily follow this work, MONSE tracks key performance indicators associated with GVRS on a weekly basis. This information is publicly available via the Public Safety Accountability Dashboard and MONSE’s monthly reports, which can be found on our Reports and Resources.
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